MoreMoneyQuant

FIELD NOTE 02

QQQ Maximum Drawdowns and Recovery Periods Since 2015

Annual return compresses an entire path into one number. Drawdown analysis instead asks how far an investment fell from a previous high and how long the prior high remained unrecovered.

Read
7 minutes
Data window
Adjusted daily closes from 2015-01-02 through 2026-07-17

THE SHORT ANSWER

The deepest completed QQQ drawdown in this sample was about 35.1%, from the 2021-12-27 peak to the 2022-11-03 trough. The adjusted-close series did not regain that peak until 2023-12-13, 716 calendar days after the peak.

Largest drawdown

−35.1%

Peak to trough using adjusted daily closes

Longest listed recovery

716 days

Calendar days from prior peak to recovery

Completed episodes shown

5

Largest drawdowns in the study window

01 / DEFINITION

Drawdown measures loss from the last high-water mark

For each trading day, the study compares the adjusted closing value with the highest adjusted closing value observed so far. Drawdown is zero at a new high and negative below that high.

Recovery occurs on the first later trading day whose adjusted closing value reaches or exceeds the earlier peak. The duration below is reported in calendar days, so weekends and market holidays remain part of the investor’s waiting period.

drawdown(t) = value(t) ÷ running peak(t) − 1

02 / EPISODES

The largest completed QQQ drawdowns in the sample

The table ranks completed episodes by depth. Small pullbacks and overlapping declines within the same unrecovered period are not counted as separate episodes.

Adjusted-close episodes; duration is measured from peak to recovery.
PeakTroughDepthRecoveredCalendar days
2021-12-272022-11-03−35.1%2023-12-13716
2020-02-192020-03-16−28.6%2020-06-03105
2018-08-292018-12-24−22.8%2019-04-12226
2025-02-192025-04-08−22.8%2025-06-24125
2015-12-012016-02-09−16.1%2016-07-27239

03 / DEPTH VS DURATION

A faster fall does not imply a faster recovery

The 2020 decline reached its trough quickly and recovered its previous peak in 105 calendar days. The 2022 episode was deeper and remained below its prior peak for nearly two years. Depth, speed, and recovery duration are separate properties.

Recovery is also asymmetric. A 20% decline needs a 25% gain to break even; a 35% decline needs roughly 54%. This arithmetic is one reason maximum drawdown deserves equal billing with annualized return.

04 / LIMITATIONS

The episode list is a measurement, not a forecast

The sample begins in 2015 and excludes earlier QQQ history, including the dot-com cycle. Adjusted-close data also differs from an investor’s personal account after taxes, timing, fees, and cash flows.

A future decline can be deeper or last longer than every episode listed here. The table should be used to understand historical path risk and research definitions, not to set a guaranteed loss limit. This material is not investment advice.

Primary and methodology sources
  1. 01Invesco QQQ fund descriptionInvesco
  2. 02QQQ and TQQQ historical comparison reportMoreMoneyQuant
  3. 03Return, drawdown, and recovery definitionsMoreMoneyQuant

CONTINUE THE TOPIC

Related research

Historical observations and illustrations are provided for research education. They are not investment advice, personalized recommendations, or guarantees of future results.

    QQQ Maximum Drawdowns and Recovery Periods Since 2015 | MoreMoneyQuant